On Aug 28, 8:48*am, The alMIGHTY N <natle...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> 2012 is when Yerli himself expects the new consoles to come out. This
> obviously has no bearing on when any of the manufacturers expect their
> new consoles to come out.
It's when most of the industry expects new consoles out, even
Microsoft said 2011 or 2012. Nintendo said Wii HD in 5 years (from
2006 so 2011), only Sony is sticking to its "10 year plan" which
sounds like what they did with PS1 are about to do with PS2, keep them
on the market for 10 years, but not before the next gen arrived /
arrives.
>
> The writer of the article you quoted talks about historical timelines
> agreeing with this estimate but that statement doesn't hold any water.
> 2012 would be right for the Playstation 4 but if history serves as a
> basis for estimates, we should be estimating the next Nintendo machine
> in 2010 and the next Xbox in either 2009 or 2010 (depending on whether
> we thought that the Xbox was shelved a year too early).
There is NO way the next-gen Xbox is coming in 2009, no way, otherwise
we would've heard RUMORS of that by now, and there are no rumors. In
2009 it is expected Microsoft will have a new Xbox 360 with combined
CPU/GPU and probably in a smaller form factor. Even 2010 is
unlikely for the next-gen Xbox, as that's only 5 years after X360.
Microsoft has said they wanted a 7 year life for 360, that means 2005
- 2012. I could see a 2011 launch but doubtful over a 2010 launch
and 2009 is out of the question.
Nintendo could launch anytime from 2010 forward since they never put
out a current-gen console. The Wii is merely a repackaged GameCube
with 1.5x the speed/power, a significant amount of additional RAM (64
extra MB), full sized DVD drive/discs, and a new controller. The Wii
controller was originally going to be a perphiperal for the Cube.
Nintendo's next-gen console could leap forward at least one
generation, to 360/PS3 level of power, or be somewhat more powerful,
but less than XB3, PS4, OR be almost on par with XB3,PS4 in the same
sense that GameCube was in the same class as PS2 & Xbox, just more
conservative in specs. If Nintendo rivaled XB3, PS4 they would be
jumping forward two entire generations of consoles in power from Wii.
Since Wii's CPU/GPU are the same architecture as GameCube, that makes
Wii late 1990s tech, like GameCube. A Nintendo that was on par with
XB3,PS4 would leap ahead more or less 12 years in tech. A Nintendo
console that was behind XB3, PS4 but ahead of 360,PS3 would leap ahead
7-9 years.
>
> 6-7 years is way too long a lifespan for a console. It's much more
> likely that we'll see the next round of machines in late 2010 than in
> late 2012.
IMO, 4 years is too short, 9-10 years is too long. 5-6 years is
the norm. Most of the industry expects this current gen to be somewhat
longer than previous gens, so I am thinking 6-8 years, at least as far
as X360/PS3 to XB3,PS4. Nintendo should come in at 5 years
(2011) like they have been doing for for 3 cycles after SNES
(SNES 1991 - N64 1996 - GameCube 2001 - Wii 2006)
and yes I realize the Japanese SNES, the Super Famicom, came out in
late 1990, Japanese N64 came out in mid 1996 so that was 5.5 years.
Otherwise it's been every 5 years like clockwork from Nintendo as far
as console releases.
Nintendo's longest stretch was 7.5 years, from 8-bit Famicom (mid
1983) to 16-bit Super Famicom (late 1990).
SEGA did a 3 year cycle from Master System (mid 1986) to Genesis (late
summer 1989) , then not counting SegaCD or 32X addons for Genesis,
went 6 years before releasing Saturn (mid 1995), then 4 years to
Dreamcast. Sony has been doing 5+ to 6 year cycles
(Japan) PS1 late 1994 to PS2 early 2000 to PS3 late 2006
(U.S) PS1 fall 1995 to PS2 late 2000 to PS3 late 2006
Microsoft hasnt been around long enough to establish a cycle, the Xbox
was late and their first try at a console, Xbox 360 came out early.
As I said before there is no way XB3 will hit 4 years after 360 in
2009, and 2010 would be on the early side. I'm sure Microsoft will
want to make sure XB3 has a very low defect rate, and also be a large
technological leap above 360. The 360 was a significant tech leap
from Xbox but not like what we saw with PS1 to PS2 or N64 to
GameCube. So I say 6-7 years for 360 to XB3 and 7 years (8 max)
from PS3 to PS4.
>
> On Aug 28, 11:31 am, parallax-scroll <parallaxscr...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Rumour: Xbox 720 and PS4 release dates
>
> > The Games Convention Developers Conference in Leipzig, Germany has not
> > been the most exciting of events. Apart from one fleeting moment
> > during an otherwise uneventful keynote presentation the future of
> > gaming graphics. Could Cevat Yerli have inadvertently announced the
> > expected arrival dates of the Xbox 720 and PlayStation 4?
>
> > 'The Future of Gaming Graphics' is the kind of keynote that you might
> > expect when attending the Games Convention Developers Conference. What
> > attendees at the German event did most certainly not expect, however,
> > was to be told when the major nextgen games consoles would arrive.
>
> > The CEO of FarCry and Crysis development house Crytek confidently
> > announced the expected DOA of both Sony and Microsoft next-generation
> > consoles during his speech.
>
> > Cevat Yerli explained that Crytek have plans to release a new version
> > of its ground-breaking CryEngine which he expects to build on the
> > success of CryEngine 2 by adding more on-screen assets and making them
> > of even better quality. Three to five times better looking according
> > to Yerli.
>
> > CryEngine 3 will, Yerli explained, by available in 2012. Until then,
> > gamers should get used to maximum effective gaming resolutions of 1920
> > x 1080 and 60 frames per second. After which we should expect to see
> > real-time graphics on a par with the kind of CG you get in the latest
> > Pixar animated movies.
>
> > The real surprise though was that Yerli went on to say that the
> > arrival of CryEngine 3 and a renaissance of graphics programming will
> > coincide with the release of both the Xbox 720 and PlayStation 4. To
> > be precise he said they will "arrive in 2011 or 2012."
>
> > To be fair, Yerli did qualify his remarks as being "just our estimate"
> > and claiming that he didn't know and that if Microsoft and Sony had
> > told him he "couldn't say because it would be under NDA."
>
> > The important point being that it would appear Crytek is working to a
> > production schedule that assumes a 3 to 4 year lead time for the next-
> > generation of consoles. And if it is doing that, then others are
> > likely to be doing the same.
>
> > Given the historical timelines of both consoles, I'd say that even if
> > Yerli was just talking off the top of his head to get some publicity
> > (and it has worked if so) then the math is sound enough...
>
> >http://www.itwire.com/content/view/20156/532/
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