AAPL dives 50% since end of August!

Discussion in 'Apple' started by Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. For a long time, I've been saying that Macs were way overpriced and that, soon
    as a recession would come, the whole Mac scam would crumble. For instance, on
    June 17th, iI
    "Artists" like you can't meet their mortgage payments and will soon be glad if
    they can afford an UMPC at the poorhouse. According to *MacWorld*, Apple has
    17.6% of the laptop industry *in the US*, but the US economy is declining as
    never before. Watch the UMPCs catch up!

    -----------

    Well, God knows why, it now seems investors agree with me:

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=07&b=25&c=2008&d=09&e=8&f=2008&g=w>

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined>

    On December 28th 2007, AAPL shares were at $200.59. Today they closed at $89.79.

    52wk Range: 87.54 - 202.96

    Of course, every manufacturer is hit. From September 2nd to Oct 7th, HP's
    shares went from $47.18 to $40.76.

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HPQ&a=08&b=1&c=2008&d=09&e=8&f=2008&g=d>

    Their value wasn't cut in half...

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined>

    But wait before you buy, you'll find what low really means in 6-8 months.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 8, 2008
    #1
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  2. You expect anyone to go along with your implication that overvalued
    stock means overpriced product?

    G
     
    Gregory Weston, Oct 8, 2008
    #2
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  3. Gregory Weston a écrit :
    Overvalued stock doesn't necessarily mean overpriced products but, in Apple's
    case, it definitely does. And great minds think alike :) it seems:


    Apple Watch
    Apple-Pocalypse Now?

    While Apple shares were crunched Monday amid fears that the credit crisis
    could strangle U.S consumers, the bigger worry is that competitors are
    starting to pile on.

    Apple's (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) shares fell $22.69, or 17.69%, to
    $105.55, as analysts slashed their ratings on the company's shares Monday
    following the defeat of a $700 billion Wall Street bailout package in the U.S.
    House of Representatives.

    Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ) Analyst Kathryn Huberty downgraded
    Apple to "equal-weight" from "overweight" Monday. RBC Capital Markets Analyst
    Mike Abramsky also cut his rating on the stock, to "sector perform" from
    "outperform." Both cited fears that consumers--who have snapped up Apple's
    products--will cut spending on PCs.

    More worrying, however, is that competitors are piling on just as the consumer
    spending that fed Apple's growth may be slackening. That could put pressure on
    the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's rich profit margins.

    To be sure, Apple is already hustling out lower-priced products of its own. In
    July, Apple cut its gross margin forecast for its current fiscal quarter to
    31.4% from 34.2% during the third quarter, as it hinted at new, lower-priced
    products to come (see "Apple Makes No Promises").

    But while Apple slashed prices for several iPod models in September, analysts
    worry that Apple will have to cut margins further still to counter everything
    from cheap, new laptops offered by the likes of Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news -
    people ) to new media-friendly, touch-screen handsets being readied by Nokia
    (nyse: NOK - news - people ).

    Finland's Nokia is widely expected to become the latest handset maker to take
    a crack at building an iPhone killer with the debut this week of a low-cost,
    touch-screen phone dubbed the Nokia 5800."

    <http://www.forbes.com/technology/2008/09/29/apple-stock-down-tech-intel-cx_bc_0929apple.html>

    And then, of course, next year, Android will /really/ be on the market...
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #3
  4. You were wrong then, and you are wrong now.

    I wonder whether you are the lying bastard who posted at icnn that Jobs
    had a heart attack. You are just the kind of scoundrel to do that.

    And now that I've got that out of my system, into the kill file you go,
    asshole.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Oct 9, 2008
    #4
  5. Mac the Eclectic Knife

    Marc Heusser Guest

    But some bank's value was:
    Union Bank of Switzerland for example plunged 75% compared to one year
    ago, other banks over here 50%.

    In view of many banks and manufacturers AAPL seems like a stable value,
    even after the latest plunge :)

    Plus: HP did better short term, but as soon as you compare longer term
    (more than 1.5 years), where is HP? Nowhere near :)

    Marc
     
    Marc Heusser, Oct 9, 2008
    #5
  6. Markkula had nothing to do with it. Jobs wanted to price the Mac at
    $1995, but Scully insisted that it be $2495 because the lower price
    would have created too much of a demand, and they wouldn't be able to
    keep production on pace with it.

    -- Michelle
     
    Michelle Steiner, Oct 9, 2008
    #6
  7. Markkula preceded Sculley. Sculley indeed helped Apple snatch defeat
    from the jaws of victory, but Markkula was (IMO) the greedy one.[/QUOTE]

    True, he did precede Scully as CEO, but he didn't have anything to do
    with pricing the Macintosh, so his alleged greed didn't play into
    anything.

    BTW, he remained chairman of the board of directors until Jobs came back
    into the company in the mid 90s, but he still didn't have anything to do
    with setting prices.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Oct 9, 2008
    #7
  8. Marc Heusser a écrit :
    The value of stock is completely irrelevant: it depends on the estimated value
    of the company versus share on the market. As you can see here:

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined>

    in 2 years HP'S share went from $38 to a top of $53, down to $40 today(all
    roughly), whereas Apple's share went from $74, to a top of $202, down to $90
    today:

    <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined>

    Had you bought shares in Oct 2006, you'd be a bit better off with aapl, but
    the problem I'm talking about is the iWave bubble. If you had bought your
    shares at $202, you'd have lost more then 50% today, which was impossible with
    HP's shares.

    There's still a lot of hot air in this balloon. Had Steve Jobs not plundered
    the company with stock options up to $660 millions a year -- which meant it
    had to count on higher margins to keep stockholders happy -- Apple's stock
    wouldn't have dwindled as it did because it wouldn't have got as high in the
    first place, Apple would have a larger market share and would be better
    prepared to face the recession.

    Steve Job's greed bereaved Apple of a nice occasion to cease being the
    underdog. The CEO job might not appear so funny anymore and it might not prove
    very good for his health.

    If another CEO steps in, the results won't be the same and people will pretend
    that good old Steve was really a genious, but it won't have anything to do.
    The situation has changed. In a tight economy, the market will bring Apple to
    its senses. Not Apple's senses, but the market's.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #8
  9. Nick Naym a écrit :
    I use a clone which has been rebuilt 7 years ago next month for about $500. I
    used Linux and it didn't cost a cent. Pleace use your TCO garbage to discuss
    with Ballmer.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #9
  10. Mac the Eclectic Knife

    Marc Heusser Guest

    The value of stock is completely irrelevant: it depends on the estimated
    value
    of the company versus share on the market. As you can see here:[/QUOTE]

    YOU brought up the share price as the argument :)
    Please look at share prices over longer periods of time - and you will
    see that HP is not all that exciting.

    Marc
     
    Marc Heusser, Oct 9, 2008
    #10
  11. It's not that he has strong personal opinions; it's that he is a troll.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Oct 9, 2008
    #11
  12. Marc
    I brought up the price *drop*, silly.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #12
  13. Nick Naym a écrit :
    :) Read Forbes about margins.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #13
  14. False. And you can drop the word "necessarily" from your attempt at
    restating what I said. Overvalued stock doesn't mean overpriced products
    *ever*. There's no implication at all.

    G
     
    Gregory Weston, Oct 9, 2008
    #14
  15. You can't be serious... This is Usenet. ; )[/QUOTE]

    I was trying to explain to Nick what trollboy really is.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Oct 9, 2008
    #15
  16. Michelle Steiner a écrit :
    I was trying to explain to Nick what trollboy really is.[/QUOTE]

    When Ssteiner speaks about trolling, (s)he really knows what it's all about:
    you give her the figures and graphics about Apple's shares deflating by 50%,
    still, she has to give her stong arguments:

    "You were wrong then, and you are wrong now... lying bastard... scoundrel...
    kill file you... asshole."

    Really, it's the typical Mac's lady.
     
    Mac the Eclectic Knife, Oct 9, 2008
    #16
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