Android, the tsunami that's going to wipe the iPhone off the map

Discussion in 'Apple' started by Priam, Mar 24, 2008.

  1. Priam

    Priam Guest

    In message:

    <fs4p4u$bkt$>

    I wrote to JF mezei:

    "But, wait, investors are not that dumb, it seems. They read Asian Times
    and watch YouTube too. I'm not the only finance guru on earth :) So,
    from last January, when they peaked at $202, shares have dropped to $133
    last Friday. And they're still not worth that much. It's only the beginning.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL "

    I was thinking about this yesterday and I thought that this theory
    didn't make much sense. As the Fed thought that the Bear & Stearns
    collapse could have a domino effect, they injected $200,000,000,000 into
    the bank system and the following day, the Dow Jones Index was soaring.
    How could Apple investors have foresighted in January that Apple shares
    could go down because of a recession when in a matter of hours, all
    investors are happy again? That's giving them more credit than they
    deserve. That was certainly not what could have brought Apple's share
    down 30% while sales were soaring. There had to be a big shadow over
    Apple's future. A new product, maybe...

    So, I went looking for what the gPhone was up to... and learned there
    would be no gPhone! But I learned there's now a $10 million Android
    Developer Challenge launched by Google.

    Lord, that's the tsunami that's going to wipe the iPhone off the map!
    That's what the investors saw coming in January. And tech savvy Ian
    Gregory never stopped me in the nonsense I was uttering. Bad!

    Not that there won't be a recession, but that's not what's scaring the
    shit out of Apple investors, for sure.
     
    Priam, Mar 24, 2008
    #1
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  2. Doubtful.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Mar 24, 2008
    #2
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  3. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Priam a écrit :
    Bob Harris, anything to say beside "I know value, you don't know value,
    Mac is about value" ? Ian Gregory anything to say beside "I went to a
    Linux conference in 2003 where Linux geeks used MacBooks, so all Linux
    geeks are in favor of Apple"?

    I suggest we leave this to advocacy groups and speak here about the Mac
    system. Do you really believe that Apple in its corner will resist all
    the rest of the industry offering Linux, 3G and OpenGL with Open Source
    developers contributing in million dollars contests?

    I'm leaving you the occasion to explain the superiority of Apple's
    system in the mobile phone industry.
     
    Priam, Mar 25, 2008
    #3
  4. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Priam, Mar 25, 2008
    #4
  5. Priam

    Tim McNamara Guest

    Yup. Because Linux sucks to use if you're not a geek. Because key
    member of the FOSS community value "freedom" over "usability. Because
    Linux's limited- and mainly volunteer- resources are scattered over
    dozens of distributions instead of focusing on a single project aiming
    at user experience excellence.
    They've sold tons of them and made boatloads of money, kicking most of
    the competition to the curb. Pretty much the definition of superiority
    in a market economy. Something else will come along some time and kick
    the iPhone to the side, eventually. That's the nature of markets. It
    might be Android.
     
    Tim McNamara, Mar 26, 2008
    #5
  6. Priam

    Davoud Guest

    Priam:
    Tim McNamara:
    Good sentence, that last one. I've never seen "Linux,"
    "user-experience," and "excellence" in the same sentence before.

    Linux is good for what it's for -- running software, such as server
    software, that requires very little user interaction.

    Does Priam really believe that the Mac will lose ground to Linux? Does
    anybody believe that? Must be something in the Kool Aid. Wal-Mart just
    announced that it was pulling its $300 Linux boxes of the shelves --
    couldn't sell 'em. Put 'em on sale, couldn't give 'em away. Meanwhile,
    Macs that cost 10 times as much are selling like hotcakes.

    Davoud
     
    Davoud, Mar 26, 2008
    #6
  7. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Tim McNamara a écrit :
    So... I'm a geek? I'm glad I qualify! :)
    We're speaking about Google, here, Is Google scattering its resources
    over dozen of distributions? Don't forget that the basis behing all
    distributions are pretty much the same: the kernel, the libraries, the
    compiler, etc.
    Here, we certainly agree. They did make boatloads of money, thanks to
    morons. I mean $600 for a phone that's not 3G!!!
    Yes, and it will be soon: they apparently finished writing the OS and
    are now up to software contests. What does that bode for Apple? Yes,
    they have iTunes, but suppose the Android consortium sets an aTune,
    bypassing the Majors and offering tunes at 2 for $1 ? Wouldn't it be a
    nice idea?
     
    Priam, Mar 26, 2008
    #7
  8. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Davoud a écrit :
    Really? Shit, I don't have a server. Do I have to set one up?
    Hey, Moron. You have no idea what you're talking about. The box sold for
    $200. Apple earns much more money than the cost of this computer on an
    average Mac. So, of course, only new users could be interested in this
    kind of computer because otherwise, they'd have more powerful ones at home.

    But, in order to pay for space floor, it would have had to sell like hot
    cakes. But who wants to buy an Everex computer with gOS, a Google
    oriented OS nobody has ever heard of? Not me, for sure, and I'm a Linux
    user.

    So, since it was not selling enough, Walmart is now offering it online.
    Everex is preparing a more powerful model. And, as we said, many UMPCs
    are coming out with Linux.

    Whatever a very tecky guy like you might thing, Linux's interface may be
    tweaked any way a company wants. So, just don't forget, the Google
    interface has become a standard in the industry. Rest assured their
    basic proposal for an interface will be excellent. Thereafter, companies
    may tweak it their way. You may like it, you may not... but you'll have
    a choice of interfaces, prices... and wireless service providers. Prices
    will drop drastically. There just won't be enough left for Apple's lust.
     
    Priam, Mar 26, 2008
    #8
  9. Priam

    Tim McNamara Guest

    Tim McNamara:
    Good sentence, that last one. I've never seen "Linux,"
    "user-experience," and "excellence" in the same sentence before.

    Linux is good for what it's for -- running software, such as server
    software, that requires very little user interaction.

    Does Priam really believe that the Mac will lose ground to Linux?
    Does anybody believe that? Must be something in the Kool Aid.
    Wal-Mart just announced that it was pulling its $300 Linux boxes of
    the shelves -- couldn't sell 'em. Put 'em on sale, couldn't give 'em
    away. Meanwhile, Macs that cost 10 times as much are selling like
    hotcakes.[/QUOTE]

    Heck, Apple's market share for computers in February 2008 was reportedly
    something like 14% of sales and 25% of gross sales value. Apple's sales
    increased at something like 6 times the rate of the sector as a whole.

    <http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/03/17/apple_snags_14_percent_of_
    us_based_pc_retail_sales_in_february.html>
     
    Tim McNamara, Mar 27, 2008
    #9
  10. Priam

    Tim McNamara Guest

    Which one of the dozens of half-baked versions of Linux? There is no
    one Linux and there is no one Linux that works well without major geek
    skills on the part of the user. The best of the bunch is Ubuntu, from
    the user perspective, but it's got a market share of about 0.005%.
    Compared to the Mac's recent 14% share (making it one of the top three
    computer brands with HP and Dell).
    The proof will be in the pudding, as the saying goes. Let's see the
    sales numbers. Until you can provide those, you're just masturbating.
     
    Tim McNamara, Mar 27, 2008
    #10
  11. Priam

    Tim McNamara Guest

    Google != Linux. Virtually all of the basics other than the kernel were
    done by GNU, of course, and we should be referring to Linux as GNU/Linux
    even if Linus likes to forget about that.

    There are about 180 versions of Linux from just a casual perusal. Here
    are a few:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Linux_distributions

    Like I said, "Linux's limited- and mainly volunteer- resources are
    scattered over dozens of distributions instead of focusing on a single
    project aiming at user experience excellence." Some of these distros
    have an install user base <25, I suspect.
    Wouldn't have mattered if it was, eh. AT&T didn't support 3G at the
    time. Like plugging your GbE box into a 100Mbit network. Oh, yeah, it
    was Apple who sold the first personal computers with built in GbE...
    Well, since I have never bought a song online and quite possibly never
    will, I can't say that it is or isn't a nice idea. MP3s sound like
    shit. Apple lossless format sounds better, but better sounding crap
    music is a Pyrrhic victory at best. Until the recording industry starts
    selling good music, their sales will continue to freefall like they are
    now. It's about content, like it always is.
     
    Tim McNamara, Mar 27, 2008
    #11
  12. Priam

    Eric Lindsay Guest

    I was under the impression that Wal-Mart were selling the Linux boxes
    just fine. I heard the problem was the number of purchasers returning
    the Linux boxes because they didn't understand they couldn't run Windows
    software, or just plain couldn't handle the computer. If so, it isn't
    surprising. Once the Linux enthusiasts are discounted, you end up with
    buyers whose only concern is price. Hardly likely to have a great
    knowledge of what they are doing.
     
    Eric Lindsay, Mar 28, 2008
    #12
  13. Priam

    Davoud Guest

    Davoud:
    Eric Lindsay:
    Selling to people who find out they didn't get what they thought they
    were getting and returning the computers for that reason is not selling
    "just fine."

    It serves only to illustrate that Linux will _not_ be a mainstream OS.
    Ever.
    And these people are going to download compile, and de-bug software?
    NOT.

    Davoud
     
    Davoud, Mar 28, 2008
    #13
  14. Priam

    Davoud Guest

    Priam:
    No one who thinks that Linux will ever have a chance as a mainstream OS
    will understand this, but I'll repeat it anyway:

    It's the USER EXPERIENCE, dummy!

    End of 2007:

    Windows XP - 76.91%
    Windows Vista - 10.48%
    Mac OS - 7.30%
    Windows 2000 - 2.66%
    Windows 98 - 0.70%
    Linux - 0.63%

    Below Windows 98!

    Davoud
     
    Davoud, Mar 28, 2008
    #14
  15. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Davoud a écrit :
    Let's use more up to date data (February 2008):

    Windows 91.58%
    Mac 7.46%

    Following your reasoning, Mac is really going nowhere!
     
    Priam, Mar 28, 2008
    #15
  16. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Eric Lindsay a écrit :
    The impression? Where did you get this impression? A Microsoft devouts site?
     
    Priam, Mar 28, 2008
    #16
  17. Let's use accurate data from February 2008 instead of your bogus data:

    Growth in Apple's personal computer business continued to outpace the
    industry average last month, with Macs accounting for a 14 percent unit
    share and 25 percent dollar share of all US-based PC retail sales,
    according to market research firm NPD.

    The results -- first revealed in an investor note from Pacific Crest
    Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves on Monday -- represent 60 percent
    unit growth and 67 percent revenue growth over the same period one year
    ago. At the same time, overall US PC retail shipments grew just 9
    percent on a 5 percent increase in revenues.

    Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent
    in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of
    the company's new MacBook Air, noted Hargreaves.

    "Macbook Air sales appear to be additive to total sales, rather than
    replacing Macbook Pro sales," he said. "We believe a new set of
    corporate customers make up a meaningful portion of MacBook Air buyers."

    Overall, the US retail segment combined for a 20 percent increase in
    notebook shipments on an 11 percent rise in revenues.

    The Mac maker also saw robust demand for its desktop systems, which grew
    55 percent on a 68 percent increase in revenues, compared to the overall
    retail segment which saw unit sales decline 5 percent on a 2 percent
    drop in revenues.

    "Mac sales do not appear to be negatively impacted by macro
    environment," Hargreaves concluded. "[The] iMac continues to sell
    extremely well, with strong sales of larger screen sizes."
     
    Michelle Steiner, Mar 28, 2008
    #17
  18. Apple should make the MacOSX 1.4.x a freeware available or download
    from its website with all SC for all of it
    with all its cats included and find a really good spy/mole/source at
    Google to see what's going on with their little
    web browsers; hard ware and software.
     
    Saint Isadore Patron Saint of the Internet, Mar 28, 2008
    #18
  19. Priam

    Davoud Guest

    Priam:
    Priam again:
    Nice try, sort of.

    I see you know as much about logic as you do about the chances of
    Linux' success as a desktop OS.

    1. The Mac OS market share has more than tripled in two years. Mac OS
    usage has a rate of growth several times that of the industry as a
    whole. Linux is barely growing at all

    2. Linux has been around since about 1991; Mac OS X came nine years
    later.

    3. The _growth_ of Mac OS X that took place in the two months that you
    cite is equal to 25 percent of the Linux market share.

    Linux is still less popular than Windows 98. Linux will eventually pass
    Win 98, if not by growth, then by retirement of old PC's running Win
    98. Linux could even reach a 1 percent share within a few years. It's
    harder to predict where the Mac OS will end up; the Mac's rate of
    growth is changing (upward) too quickly to allow accurate predictions
    at present. Laptops are an ever-more-important segment of the market,
    and independent surveys (meaning market surveys conducted by companies
    that were not hired by, and are not affiliated with, Apple, Inc.) say
    that Mac portables have a 15% and growing share of the portable market.

    Find out what percentage of the corporate and home desktop market Linux
    has, and what it's growth rate is. Hint: Mathematically
    indistinguishable from zero.

    How is Linux at pro-level video editing? Audio? Graphics? How many
    Oscars has Linux won? What major movies were edited using Linux
    computers? Which band, performer, orchestra uses Linux? List the ad
    agencies whose graphics dept's are Linux based. Newspapers and
    magazines? Mom and pop connecting their digital camera? Well known
    writers? How well does Linux run Aperture? The Adobe graphics suites?
    How well does it access the most popular on-line music store in the
    galaxy?

    You knew all of that. Whaddaya want from me? I have said that Linux is
    a great OS for servers and other applications that don't require much
    human interaction. There's nothing wrong with that.

    Davoud
     
    Davoud, Mar 28, 2008
    #19
  20. Priam

    Priam Guest

    Davoud a écrit :
    Nice try, sort of. As I already explained -- but you don't read me, you
    only utter sputter nonsense -- the problem with Linux is that it didn't
    come installed on hardware until very recently. Then, don't worry, it
    will "just work" as Mac software does not an awfully limited number of
    Apple computers.
     
    Priam, Mar 29, 2008
    #20
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