Mac sales in mild decline

Discussion in 'Apple' started by Alan Browne, Apr 23, 2014.

  1. Alan Browne

    Alan Browne Guest

    With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild decline
    that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are quarterly
    peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter average shows a
    continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.

    See link below.

    Sales peaked at 5,198,000 units in 12Q1 and there has not been a 5M unit
    quarter since. The past quarter rang in at 4.14M units with an average
    of 4.33M units over the last 4 quarters; and 4.28M over the last 8 quarters.

    Mac revenue is slightly up from the same quarter a year ago.

    Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/yf1glio0gwgvplh/MacSalesUnits-14Q2.jpg

    - - - - -

    Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac" rumours
    in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to attract
    newcomers to the Mac.

    --
    "Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
    but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
    -Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07
     
    Alan Browne, Apr 23, 2014
    #1
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  2. Alan Browne

    JF Mezei Guest

    On 14-04-23 18:20, Alan Browne wrote:
    >
    > With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild decline
    > that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are quarterly
    > peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter average shows a
    > continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.



    What people (and the Wall Street Casino Analysts) forget is that
    computers have essentially stopped evolving from the point of view of
    what you can do with them.

    In the 1990s, you needed a more powerful machine to run the latest word
    processor (and the latest windows machines). In 1999, there was a mad
    scramble to buy noew Y2K compliant computers (because you needed a new
    version of WIndows to be Y2K compliant).

    My Mac Pro is 5 years old, upgraded to 4 TB of storage and 24 gigs of
    memory. Sure it could do with a boost in CPU speed for when I do some
    Premiere/AfterEffects (which I often send off to my server anyways), but
    for daya to day use, it still does the job quite well.

    The problem with the media is that they make it look like people use
    their computers less instead of stating that computers last longer these
    days.
     
    JF Mezei, Apr 23, 2014
    #2
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  3. Alan Browne

    Alan Browne Guest

    On 2014.04.23, 18:33 , JF Mezei wrote:
    > On 14-04-23 18:20, Alan Browne wrote:
    >>
    >> With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild decline
    >> that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are quarterly
    >> peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter average shows a
    >> continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.

    >
    >
    > What people (and the Wall Street Casino Analysts) forget is that
    > computers have essentially stopped evolving from the point of view of
    > what you can do with them.


    The general decline in computer sales is more due to the uptake of
    tablets. Most people are information consumers and a tablet is adequate
    to most such needs.

    > In the 1990s, you needed a more powerful machine to run the latest word
    > processor (and the latest windows machines). In 1999, there was a mad
    > scramble to buy noew Y2K compliant computers (because you needed a new
    > version of WIndows to be Y2K compliant).


    Not that I recall - I had a computer running the span of about '98 to
    '93, more or less w/o trouble.

    > My Mac Pro is 5 years old, upgraded to 4 TB of storage and 24 gigs of
    > memory. Sure it could do with a boost in CPU speed for when I do some
    > Premiere/AfterEffects (which I often send off to my server anyways), but
    > for daya to day use, it still does the job quite well.


    Several people have updated their Mac Pros with new processors - you
    could likely get more cores in there and max out the clock if it's not
    already up to the board max. (I seem to recall someone here talking
    about taking a quad core MP to 6 core or something along those lines - I
    don't recall if it was dual Xeons...).

    >
    > The problem with the media is that they make it look like people use
    > their computers less instead of stating that computers last longer these
    > days.


    It's true that computers do seem to have a longer serviceable life. My
    prior iMac fetched a very good resale value after 6 years of good use
    and I'm sure the buyer will get a lot of good use out of it.

    Maybe the first intel wave of buyers will be upgrading in the next few
    years - just on time to be stunned by 16 core ARM iMacs the following year.

    --
    "Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
    but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
    -Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07
     
    Alan Browne, Apr 24, 2014
    #3
  4. Alan Browne

    Alan Baker Guest

    On 2014-04-23 22:20:21 +0000, Alan Browne said:

    >
    > With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild
    > decline that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are
    > quarterly peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter
    > average shows a continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.
    >
    > See link below.
    >
    > Sales peaked at 5,198,000 units in 12Q1 and there has not been a 5M
    > unit quarter since. The past quarter rang in at 4.14M units with an
    > average of 4.33M units over the last 4 quarters; and 4.28M over the
    > last 8 quarters.
    >
    > Mac revenue is slightly up from the same quarter a year ago.
    >
    > Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.
    >
    > https://www.dropbox.com/s/yf1glio0gwgvplh/MacSalesUnits-14Q2.jpg
    >
    > - - - - -
    >
    > Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac"
    > rumours in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to
    > attract newcomers to the Mac.


    Your analysis is interesting...

    ....but wrong.

    Mac sales were UP year over year...

    ....and that was with constrained supply of a much anticipated new machine.
     
    Alan Baker, Apr 24, 2014
    #4
  5. Alan Browne

    Alan Browne Guest

    On 2014.04.23, 19:33 , Alan Baker wrote:
    > On 2014-04-23 22:20:21 +0000, Alan Browne said:
    >
    >>
    >> With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild
    >> decline that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are
    >> quarterly peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter
    >> average shows a continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.
    >>
    >> See link below.
    >>
    >> Sales peaked at 5,198,000 units in 12Q1 and there has not been a 5M
    >> unit quarter since. The past quarter rang in at 4.14M units with an
    >> average of 4.33M units over the last 4 quarters; and 4.28M over the
    >> last 8 quarters.
    >>
    >> Mac revenue is slightly up from the same quarter a year ago.
    >>
    >> Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.
    >>
    >> https://www.dropbox.com/s/yf1glio0gwgvplh/MacSalesUnits-14Q2.jpg
    >>
    >> - - - - -
    >>
    >> Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac"
    >> rumours in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to
    >> attract newcomers to the Mac.

    >
    > Your analysis is interesting...
    >
    > ...but wrong.
    >
    > Mac sales were UP year over year...


    Year ends?
    11: 16,735,000
    12: 18,158,000
    13: 16,341,000 a 1.8M decline is not "UP year over year" where
    I come from.

    The best 4 quarters put together are 11Q4 thru 12Q4 at 18,158,000

    Last 4? 17,301,000. Not much "UP" there either.

    > ...and that was with constrained supply of a much anticipated new machine.


    The numbers, quarter by quarter are what they are. You have to look at
    the trend over many quarters. (The constrained supply issue is long
    over and washed out).

    That's why the graph is useful - you see what's really happening:

    The last two quarterly peaks are lower in succession from the all time
    high.

    Peak 12Q1: 5,198,000
    Peak 12Q4: 4,923,000
    Peak 14Q1: 4,827,000

    It's declining.

    The troughs keep getting deeper. The moving average is down as well.

    Moving average (4 and 8 quarters)

    4 8
    12Q2: 4,514,000 4,163,375
    13Q2: 4,239,000 4,376,500
    14Q2: 4,325,250 4,282,125.

    Taking Q2 as a "year end"
    11: 15,251,000
    12: 18,056,000
    13: 16,956,000
    14: 17,301,000 decline v 2012.Q2 "year end" and not much above 2013.Q2
    "year end".

    No matter how you look at it, the Mac has been in a gentle decline since
    its peak in 12Q1.

    Not to say that won't reverse. But it is what it is.

    OTOH, it's still a $20B+ business in its own right which is nothing to
    sneeze at.

    --
    "Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
    but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
    -Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07
     
    Alan Browne, Apr 24, 2014
    #5
  6. Alan Browne

    Lewis Guest

    In message <>
    Alan Browne <> wrote:
    > Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.


    They never did.

    > Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac" rumours
    > in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to attract
    > newcomers to the Mac.


    If there were a low price iMac, it would replace the Mac mini. I doubt
    that will happen.

    --
    "Everyone has a photographic Memory, some just don't have film." ~Steven
    Wright
     
    Lewis, Apr 24, 2014
    #6
  7. Alan Browne

    Lewis Guest

    In message <>
    Alan Browne <> wrote:
    > On 2014.04.23, 18:33 , JF Mezei wrote:
    >> On 14-04-23 18:20, Alan Browne wrote:
    >>>
    >>> With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild decline
    >>> that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are quarterly
    >>> peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter average shows a
    >>> continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.

    >>
    >>
    >> What people (and the Wall Street Casino Analysts) forget is that
    >> computers have essentially stopped evolving from the point of view of
    >> what you can do with them.


    > The general decline in computer sales is more due to the uptake of
    > tablets.


    There is no evidence of that. People are holding on to computers longer,
    there is evidence of that.

    --
    Thanks to great leaders such as Ghengis Khan, Joan of Arc, and Socratic
    Method, the world is full of history.
     
    Lewis, Apr 24, 2014
    #7
  8. Alan Browne

    JF Mezei Guest

    On 14-04-23 21:01, Lewis wrote:

    > There is no evidence of that. People are holding on to computers longer,
    > there is evidence of that.


    And there is also much less compelling need to upgrade. In the case of
    Apple, there is also reduction of function by producing new models that
    have fewer features (fewer ports, and in case of Mac Pro, no disk
    storage, less sound in/out ports etc)
     
    JF Mezei, Apr 24, 2014
    #8
  9. Alan Browne

    JF Mezei Guest

    Tim Cook brags about health and growth of iTunes.

    800 million accounts, most of those attached to a credit card.

    As you may recall there were some Wall Street Casino Analysts who
    speculated Itunes was not doing well. Timk Cook started his speech with
    iTunes success, killing those casino analysts' speculation.



    Tablets will surpass the PC market IN A FEW YEARS. So it appears PC is
    still bigger.
     
    JF Mezei, Apr 24, 2014
    #9
  10. Alan Browne

    Guest

    JF Mezei <> writes:

    > Tim Cook brags about health and growth of iTunes.
    >
    > 800 million accounts, most of those attached to a credit card.


    Everybody with an Apple ID has an iTunes account, whether they
    use it, or (like me) not.

    That said, I remain quite happy with the royalty income iTunes
    generates for me.

    Billy Y..
    --
    sub #'9+1 ,r0 ; convert ascii byte
    add #9.+1 ,r0 ; to an integer
    bcc 20$ ; not a number
     
    , Apr 24, 2014
    #10
  11. Alan Browne

    nospam Guest

    In article <>, Alan Browne
    <> wrote:

    > > In the 1990s, you needed a more powerful machine to run the latest word
    > > processor (and the latest windows machines). In 1999, there was a mad
    > > scramble to buy noew Y2K compliant computers (because you needed a new
    > > version of WIndows to be Y2K compliant).

    >
    > Not that I recall - I had a computer running the span of about '98 to
    > '93, more or less w/o trouble.


    other than the clock running backwards.
     
    nospam, Apr 24, 2014
    #11
  12. Alan Browne

    nospam Guest

    In article <>, Lewis
    <> wrote:

    > > The general decline in computer sales is more due to the uptake of
    > > tablets.

    >
    > There is no evidence of that. People are holding on to computers longer,
    > there is evidence of that.


    there definitely is evidence of that. people are buying ipads and
    android tablets *instead* of a laptop or even a desktop.

    apple has even said as much in their earnings calls, as have other
    companies. tablets killed the netbook market.
     
    nospam, Apr 24, 2014
    #12
  13. Alan Browne

    nospam Guest

    In article <>, Lewis
    <> wrote:

    > > Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.

    >
    > They never did.


    they normally split it into desktop and portables but beyond that, no.
     
    nospam, Apr 24, 2014
    #13
  14. Alan Browne

    JF Mezei Guest

    On 14-04-23 23:05, nospam wrote:

    > there definitely is evidence of that. people are buying ipads and
    > android tablets *instead* of a laptop or even a desktop.


    That is perhaps because they already have a laptop and don't need to
    replace it.

    Sales figures in a quarter don't give the real figure of what equipment
    people use because sales figures do not say how much people use their
    existing equipment.
     
    JF Mezei, Apr 24, 2014
    #14
  15. Alan Browne

    Your Name Guest

    In article <53583fca$0$1283$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:

    > On 14-04-23 18:20, Alan Browne wrote:
    > >
    > > With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild decline
    > > that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are quarterly
    > > peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter average shows a
    > > continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.

    >
    > What people (and the Wall Street Casino Analysts) forget is that
    > computers have essentially stopped evolving from the point of view of
    > what you can do with them.
    >
    > In the 1990s, you needed a more powerful machine to run the latest word
    > processor (and the latest windows machines). In 1999, there was a mad
    > scramble to buy noew Y2K compliant computers (because you needed a new
    > version of WIndows to be Y2K compliant).
    >
    > My Mac Pro is 5 years old, upgraded to 4 TB of storage and 24 gigs of
    > memory. Sure it could do with a boost in CPU speed for when I do some
    > Premiere/AfterEffects (which I often send off to my server anyways), but
    > for daya to day use, it still does the job quite well.
    >
    > The problem with the media is that they make it look like people use
    > their computers less instead of stating that computers last longer these
    > days.


    My beige PowerMac G3 has lasted 16 years so far and still working
    perfectly well (at least as "perfectly" as buggy 10.2 will allow). :)
     
    Your Name, Apr 24, 2014
    #15
  16. In article <lj9ijr$l9m$>,
    Alan Baker <> wrote:

    > On 2014-04-23 22:20:21 +0000, Alan Browne said:
    >
    > >
    > > With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild
    > > decline that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are
    > > quarterly peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter
    > > average shows a continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.
    > >
    > > See link below.
    > >
    > > Sales peaked at 5,198,000 units in 12Q1 and there has not been a 5M
    > > unit quarter since. The past quarter rang in at 4.14M units with an
    > > average of 4.33M units over the last 4 quarters; and 4.28M over the
    > > last 8 quarters.
    > >
    > > Mac revenue is slightly up from the same quarter a year ago.
    > >
    > > Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.
    > >
    > > https://www.dropbox.com/s/yf1glio0gwgvplh/MacSalesUnits-14Q2.jpg
    > >
    > > - - - - -
    > >
    > > Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac"
    > > rumours in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to
    > > attract newcomers to the Mac.

    >
    > Your analysis is interesting...
    >
    > ...but wrong.
    >
    > Mac sales were UP year over year...
    >
    > ...and that was with constrained supply of a much anticipated new machine.


    Sales are not up and anticipation of that new machine evaporated once it
    was released. Tim is trying to hard make it look scarce and exclusive
    like Steve did, but people are waiting for the next model.
     
    Kevin McMurtrie, Apr 24, 2014
    #16
  17. Alan Browne

    Your Name Guest

    In article <53586f78$0$7147$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:
    > On 14-04-23 21:01, Lewis wrote:
    > >
    > > There is no evidence of that. People are holding on to computers longer,
    > > there is evidence of that.

    >
    > And there is also much less compelling need to upgrade. In the case of
    > Apple, there is also reduction of function by producing new models that
    > have fewer features (fewer ports, and in case of Mac Pro, no disk
    > storage, less sound in/out ports etc)


    No CD / DVD drive. No floppy disk drive. No Apple serial port. No SCSI
    port. ;-)

    The new iMacs actually have MORE ports than the old ones - the CRT
    iMacs only had (from memory) two USB ports and no Thunderbolt /
    Firewire ports or SD card slot.

    Even in Windoze world few people bother to upgrade very often, hence
    all the over-hyped advertising, etc. trying to get Windows XP users to
    upgrade.
     
    Your Name, Apr 24, 2014
    #17
  18. Alan Browne

    Your Name Guest

    In article <53587110$0$61489$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:
    >
    > Tim Cook brags about health and growth of iTunes.
    >
    > 800 million accounts, most of those attached to a credit card.
    >
    > As you may recall there were some Wall Street Casino Analysts who
    > speculated Itunes was not doing well. Timk Cook started his speech with
    > iTunes success, killing those casino analysts' speculation.
    >
    >
    >
    > Tablets will surpass the PC market IN A FEW YEARS. So it appears PC is
    > still bigger.


    Tablets are currently still somewhat useless in a business environment
    for doing real work (which is why it's mostly management who have them)
    and that's where most computers are bought.
     
    Your Name, Apr 24, 2014
    #18
  19. Alan Browne

    JF Mezei Guest

    On 14-04-24 00:34, Your Name wrote:

    > Tablets are currently still somewhat useless in a business environment
    > for doing real work (which is why it's mostly management who have them)
    > and that's where most computers are bought.


    Actually, tablets are used by grunts too. Tim Cook mentioned FedEx
    workers for instance.

    For upper management, they would be in addition to a real computer in
    their office.
     
    JF Mezei, Apr 24, 2014
    #19
  20. Alan Browne

    Your Name Guest

    In article
    <>,
    Kevin McMurtrie <> wrote:
    > In article <lj9ijr$l9m$>,
    > Alan Baker <> wrote:
    > > On 2014-04-23 22:20:21 +0000, Alan Browne said:
    > > >
    > > > With today's earnings report, the Mac line looks to be in a mild
    > > > decline that has gone on now for the past 2 years. While there are
    > > > quarterly peaks and valleys, looking at the data with a 4 quarter
    > > > average shows a continuous decline v. the 2010-2012 period.
    > > >
    > > > See link below.
    > > >
    > > > Sales peaked at 5,198,000 units in 12Q1 and there has not been a 5M
    > > > unit quarter since. The past quarter rang in at 4.14M units with an
    > > > average of 4.33M units over the last 4 quarters; and 4.28M over the
    > > > last 8 quarters.
    > > >
    > > > Mac revenue is slightly up from the same quarter a year ago.
    > > >
    > > > Apple no longer break Mac sales down into Pro, iMac, Book and mini.
    > > >
    > > > https://www.dropbox.com/s/yf1glio0gwgvplh/MacSalesUnits-14Q2.jpg
    > > >
    > > > - - - - -
    > > >
    > > > Not related to the release, but there have been "low price iMac"
    > > > rumours in the press in recent months - if true, then perhaps a bid to
    > > > attract newcomers to the Mac.

    > >
    > > Your analysis is interesting...
    > >
    > > ...but wrong.
    > >
    > > Mac sales were UP year over year...
    > >
    > > ...and that was with constrained supply of a much anticipated new machine.

    >
    > Sales are not up and anticipation of that new machine evaporated once it
    > was released. Tim is trying to hard make it look scarce and exclusive
    > like Steve did, but people are waiting for the next model.


    Anyone waiting for the next Mac Pro is an idiot and will be waiting
    quite a while. Barring a speed bump, anyone waiting for the next iMac
    is also in for a long wait.
     
    Your Name, Apr 24, 2014
    #20
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