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Xbox 360 emulation of Xbox games, and price

Discussion in 'ATI' started by Guest, Jun 6, 2005.

  1. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Microsoft Press Briefing

    "The most important announcement at this event was the demonstration of the
    Xbox 360, planned for release this holiday season. Company management stated
    that the Xbox 360 would be backward compatible for "most top selling Xbox
    games", and pledged "support " for the current generation Xbox "well into
    2006". Two weeks ago, we noted our
    concern that the Xbox 360 may not be backward compatible with Xbox software
    due to a change in graphics processor chipset manufacturers from Nvidia to
    ATI. In a separate meeting with Microsoft management, we confirmed that the
    company has agreed to pay a small royalty to Nvidia to allow the Xbox 360's
    ATI chipset to emulate the performance of the Nvidia chipset in reading
    certain Xbox games. For games written in a single layer
    (management assumes that this is a large percentage of Xbox games), the
    hardware emulation should perform well.

    For games written in multiple layers, a further emulation must be provided.
    The company intends to create software "patches" (i.e., separate emulation
    programs) for top-selling Xbox games written in multiple layers, and intends
    to sell the Xbox 360 with a hard drive that is pre-loaded with these
    patches. We presume that the majority of Xbox games will be backward
    compatible, and the company assured us that it intends to add patches should
    consumer demand warrant such action.

    We are less confident about Microsoft's intentions regarding the current
    generation Xbox. The company's pledge of "support" is broad, but we believe
    that it does not equate to "manufacture" of Xboxes. Rather, we believe that
    the company has stockpiled a number of Nvidia chipsets, and is prepared to
    manufacture current generation Xboxes through the end of 2005, and perhaps
    for a few months beyond. The implications of this are difficult to assess:
    on the one hand, it is likely that the company will focus all of its
    marketing efforts on the rollout of the Xbox 360, and phase out the Xbox
    rapidly, resulting in a rapid ramp in sales of the new hardware; on the
    other hand, it is possible that Microsoft will be unable to satisfy demand
    for the 360, and may experience a decline in demand for current generation
    Xbox software, resulting in lower overall industry sales growth this year.
    We believe that the latter scenario is likely to occur, and note that it
    could impact overall industry sales growth by approximately 100 bps in 2005.

    One final takeaway: Microsoft did not discuss pricing for the Xbox 360, but
    assured us in our meeting with management that "neither you nor consumers
    will be shocked" at the price. This implies to us that the device will be
    priced below $400, and may possibly be priced at $350. As discussed below,
    we expect Sony's entry to be priced higher, potentially providing Microsoft
    with an additional competitive advantage."

    Guest, Jun 6, 2005
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  2. Guest

    Mattinglyfan Guest

    They better add a hell of a lot more to justify the $350 price tag. Even if
    Sony launches for $400, that is not a big enough gap to give MS an
    Mattinglyfan, Jun 6, 2005
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  3. Guest

    carrajo Guest

    They better add a hell of a lot more to justify the $350 price tag. Even
    Why not?
    carrajo, Jun 7, 2005
  4. What are these "layers" they're talking about?

    (followups to agvx)
    Andrew Ryan Chang, Jun 7, 2005
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